Analysis on Main Influencing Factors of Domestic Bisphenol A in September

Analysis of main influencing factors of bisphenol A market in September:

1. Outer disk market: After the international crude oil plummeted in August, it recovered and rebounded. After the first suppression and then the increase, the overall price was still at a high level. The weak demand for phenol fell by over RMB 1,000/ton. The direct production cost of bisphenol A slightly decreased, and the phenol content in September narrowed. There is a high probability of turbulence finishing, but the external disk of bisphenol A is more affected by the demand of PC and epoxy resin. In particular, the poor demand of PC may be the main reason for the external production of bisphenol A. Since the second quarter, the supply of PTT from Thailand has surged. And is widely used in various fields, is also an impact on the near-shore market;

2. Supply side: In September, domestic Nantong 90,000-ton/year bisphenol A plant was overhauled and restarted. In the second half of September, Teijin Teijin’s 200,000-ton/year PC unit was overhauled, and its bisphenol A exports to China will increase; July Customs The data show that the import of bisphenol A hit a new low during the year, and the figure may have increased significantly in August. In short, the supply of bisphenol A in the spot market will continue to increase in September.

3. Downstream demand: The chemical market weakened in August, and the price of PC and epoxy resin in the downstream of BPA decreased simultaneously. The “Golden 9 Silver 10” demand for seasonal recovery was not too high, especially for the PC market. Epoxy resin mostly changed with the fluctuation of cost. In August, epichlorohydrin oscillates softly. In September, the market has a high probability of oscillating between 13000-14000 yuan/ton, and the market prospect of bisphenol A is uncertain. All of them cause many uncertainties in the downstream.

4. Related products ECH: Epichlorohydrin spot market fluctuated and weakened in August. Despite the fact that the major domestic production enterprises are not too stable, it is still difficult to shake down the downward trend of the commodity market, and the improvement of the chemical products market is not obvious in September. The downstream resin has seen more changes in the raw materials, and the production companies have not been smooth in shipping, and have been fluctuating and arranging along the waves.

5. Peripheral market: In August, debt problems and credit ratings in Europe and the United States continued to dominate the financial and commodity markets. The stock market and commodities as a whole were significantly weaker. In September, whether QE3 was introduced in the United States left the market with infinite imagination, but the global economic growth slowed down. The Eurozone economy has deteriorated further. The high unemployment rate and low growth rate in the United States are indisputable facts. With multiple messages superimposed, the market environment is still responsible for difficult judgments.

In early September, the bisphenol A raw materials, related products, and cost were too exhausting, how long the bisphenol A's stand-alone stalemate could continue to be observed. In September, multiple factors of the external disk, external market environment, and downstream demand were worth paying close attention to. Flexible operation to control the market direction.